Texas Tech University is set to develop a state-focused flood forecasting system after receiving $24 million from the Texas legislature. The funding, authorized by Senate Bill 5 and signed by Governor Greg Abbott on September 18, will support the expansion of the West Texas Mesonet (WTM), a weather monitoring network managed by Texas Tech’s National Wind Institute (NWI).
The WTM has operated for 25 years, providing reliable weather data through more than 170 stations across West Texas. Following severe flooding in the Hill Country during summer 2025, lawmakers turned to Texas Tech for solutions to improve weather forecasting and flood management.
The project aims to provide real-time information for forecasters and decision makers. Jen Henderson, assistant professor of geography and the environment at Texas Tech, said that early efforts will include meetings with Hill Country officials to understand their needs regarding risk information. “That information, a lot of experts glean from social media, storm chasers or storm spotters,” Henderson says. “There’s a bit of a delay. They can usually get data about the kind of hydrology and the meteorology more quickly than they can get the information about the societal impacts.”
Henderson joins John Schroeder, NWI senior director and professor of atmospheric science; Brian Ancell, professor of atmospheric science; and Brian Hirth, NWI research professor, as lead researchers on this initiative.
The project will add new mesonet stations and automated rain gauges to fill coverage gaps in areas such as south of Interstate 20, west of Interstate 35, and north of U.S. Highway 90. It also includes installing high-resolution radars at strategic locations within the Hill Country.
Schroeder oversees project management and station deployment; Ancell leads modeling components; Hirth focuses on radar operations; Henderson assesses user needs for risk information.
Ancell plans to create an ensemble forecast system running up to 100 models simultaneously for zero-to-two-day predictions focused solely on Texas. When storms begin, real-time measurements will feed into a Warn-on-Forecast system capable of modeling events six hours ahead.
“We’re going to run it at a higher resolution than is currently available, and with all those new measurements, we’re augmenting and reducing the uncertainty of what the starting point is for that system,” Schroeder says.
The team has already completed two mesonet stations in Kerr County as part of initial phases that also involve site selection for additional equipment installations. Hirth notes challenges related to radar placement due to terrain: “Radar can’t shoot through the ground, so to provide accurate rainfall estimates, we need a clean, 360-degree line of sight for the new radar systems… So we’ve already started… looking at terrain maps to identify… where we can deploy the radar system so they’re sitting on local high spots.”
They have identified about 30 potential sites but must address feasibility issues such as access to power sources and communication infrastructure.
Unlike previous deployments involving handshake agreements with landowners for small towers, this project requires formal leases due to larger structures—60-70 feet tall—for radar equipment.
A large computing cluster will be needed for Ancell’s ensemble forecasting system which he expects will run four times daily using updated data each cycle.
Both Ancell and Hirth see broader benefits beyond immediate flood response: forecasts could help various sectors manage disruptions caused by severe weather statewide. “We want our program, this team, Texas Tech, to become the lead entity when anyone thinks ‘We want to understand what’s going on with the weather across the state,’” Hirth says. “While the near-term project focus is on the Hill Country for flood response, we’re thinking much bigger in how we’re organizing and developing the entire system.”
Henderson emphasizes tailoring products for users with different backgrounds—from trained meteorologists among emergency managers to rural volunteers without formal training—by translating research into operational tools relevant across contexts.
By its two-year deadline set by state leaders—and potentially beyond—the expanded WTM aims not only to save lives but also position Texas as a national leader in high-impact weather preparedness through advanced measurement capabilities and modeling quality.
“It will be very unique to the state,” Hirth continues. “Texas will become a national leader in how to prepare for and respond to high impact weather events… This project represents a massive opportunity to showcase all NWI’s unique expertise…”
Schroeder added: “Now you’re saying ‘You know what? We’re putting you in the game… We need you to bring this to life.’ That’s something I’m pretty proud of.”
